Experian Research Highlights Shifting Consumer Delinquency Trends
Experian has announced the results of a study that analyzed delinquency trends across consumer risk segments to uncover the shifting patterns in consumer payment behavior and the geographies most affected. "The changing delinquency trends highlight the severe affect of the mortgage crisis on subprime consumers and its continuing permeation into the prime consumer segment. The study's findings suggest that the conventional wisdom -- consumers who hold a mortgage are less risky than those who don't -- may need to be rethought in light of the mortgage market turmoil."
The first quarter of 2005 has been identified as a pivotal point in time when analyzing delinquencies. Consumers with mortgages originated prior to 2005 can be said to perform closely to historical statistical patterns accepted within the industry. However, for consumers with mortgages originated January 2005 and after, the delinquency pattern begins to shift. The study identifies the shift in overall delinquencies, first mortgage delinquencies, delinquency progression and foreclosure trends.
"We conduct these studies to provide the most relevant data possible to organizations that extend credit and loans to American consumers," said Kerry Williams, group president of Experian's Credit Services and Decision Analytics. "If organizations feel confident that they have the right data to make sound decisions, it will enable them to maintain the flow of credit to consumers in the form of mortgage loans, credit cards and personal loans."
Some of the key findings of the study include:
- One out of four subprime adjustable-rate mortgages originated after 1Q05 are at 60 days past due
- Prime consumers with adjustable rate mortgages originated after 1Q05 have experienced a 286% increase in the rate of bankcard delinquency
- Of all mortgages originated after 1Q05 that entered foreclosure, more than 35 percent are in California
The data used for the analysis was compiled from Experian consumer credit data. The statistically valid sample was randomly selected and followed through all time periods of the analysis to provide a true progression of delinquency trend among the sample.
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