Online Holiday Shopping Peak Predicted For Monday, December 18th

"eCommerce may still be in its adolescence," said Doug Schwegman, CyberSource director of market and customer intelligence. "But we've been tracking peak day volumes for many years. A rule of thumb has emerged about holiday peak shopping days: they typically happen on the Monday occurring closest to Christmas where there is at least a week available for shipping. We expect that to be the case this year-Monday, December 18th. CyberMonday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, is a good eCommerce shopping day, but beyond that it's just hype. It represents no sort of sales plateau. If anything, it's about the halfway mark for holiday sales."

Based on CyberSource data, peak eCommerce shopping days in prior years have occurred as follows:

• 2000 - Monday, December 18
• 2001 - Monday, December 17
• 2002 - Monday, December 16
• 2003 - Monday, December 15
• 2004 - Monday, December 13
• 2005 - Monday, December 12

This year marks the reversal of a six-year trend. Since the year 2000, the peak day has been moving earlier in December. Not so in 2006, where it moves from the 12th to the 18th, because Christmas once again falls on a Monday as it did in 2000. "If the peak does occur earlier this year, say Monday, December 11th, this will mean the early shopping incentives have prevailed over the procrastinators," said Schwegman. "But I believe the rule will hold up. eCommerce is all about convenience. It's about not wrapping, not waiting in post office lines, not having to hunt for parking. Traditionalists who do their shopping at a mall two weeks or more before the 25th will have the joy of all those crowds. The rest of us will comfortably go online on the 18th, knowing merchants can still get those gifts to the family on time."

CyberSource processes electronic payments for leading web merchants. In the last four calendar quarters the company processed approximately $32 billion in online sales.