Fortune: How blue will Christmas be?

Cora Daniels reports on predictions for sluggish retail sales this holiday season.

The shopper shortfall isn't affecting just clothing merchants, and it's not just a New York thing. Retail is tanking everywhere. September sales for the nation's largest retailers missed Wall Street estimates across the board. In fact, they barely beat figures from the same month last year, when stores were virtually empty after Sept. 11. The S&P index of retail stocks has fallen 30% from its peak in March 2002. It's no secret that luxury retailers have been struggling for some time. But now even discounters like Wal-Mart and Target are seeing sales dip.

I went shopping at a local CostCo yesterday -- at what is normally a peak shopping time (late morning on Saturday). The warehouse was actually pleasant to shop in, no bumper cart games required, lots of seasonal merchandise piled high, only had one person in front of me at checkout -- but certainly not as busy as I would have expected or endured on other Saturday's a year or two ago. Meanwhile, Philip Klein reports in a Reuters story about how credit is getting much harder to find -- particularly for so-called "subprime" consumers.

The so-called subprime lending market that caters to those with poor or thin credit histories has been brought to its knees, hit by the twin blows of a weak economy and increased scrutiny by regulators. The new climate not only threatens to slow long-term growth prospects for the consumer credit industry, led by firms such as Providian Financial Corp. PVN.N , Capital One Financial Corp. COF.N and retailers such as Sears, Roebuck and Co. S.N It also makes it more difficult for low-income borrowers to get credit cards and loans for homes and cars.